FUTURES LIQUIDITY

Futures Liquidity - November 2012

Trading liquidity is often overlooked as a key technical measurement in the analysis and selection of commodity futures. The following explains how to read the futures liquidity chart published by Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities every month.

Commodity futures
The futures liquidity chart shown below is intended to rank publicly traded futures contracts in order of liquidity. Relative contract liquidity is indicated by the number of dots on the right-hand side of the chart.

This liquidity ranking is produced by multiplying contract point value times the maximum conceivable price motion (based on the past three years’ historical data) times the contract’s open interest times a factor (usually 1 to 4) for low or very high volumes. The greatest number of dots indicates the greatest activity; futures with one or no dots show little activity and are therefore less desirable for speculators.

All futures listed are weighted equally under “contracts to trade for equal dollar profit.” This is done by multiplying contract value times the maximum possible change in price observed in the last three-year period. Thus, all numbers in this column have an equal dollar value.

Columns indicating percent margin and effective percent margin provide a helpful comparison for traders who wish to place their margin money efficiently. The effective percent margin is determined by dividing the margin value ($) by the three-year price range of contract dollar value, and then multiplying by one hundred.

Stocks
Trading liquidity has a significant effect on the change in price of a security. Theoretically, trading activity can serve as a proxy for trading liquidity and equals the total volume for a given period expressed as a percentage of the total number of shares outstanding. This value can be thought of as the turnover rate of a firm’s shares outstanding.

Trading Liquidity: Futures

Commodity
Futures
Exchange % Margin Effective
% Margin
Contracts To Trade For Equal Dollar Profit Relative Contract Liquidity
Mini S&P 500 Index CME 6.0 19.8 6 ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••>
3 Mo Euribor Interest Rate LIFFE 0.1 3.8 6 ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
3 Yr. Cmmnwlth T-Bonds SFE 0.0 0.9 1 •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
Eurodollar Interest Rate CME 0.1 9.3 23 ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
Brent Crude Oil ICE-EU 4.9 13.5 3 •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
10 Yr Treasury Notes CBOT 1.1 8.1 7 ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
DJ Euro Stoxx 50 Index EUREX 7.2 29.8 15 •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
Natural Gas NYM 9.2 7.6 3 ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
Gold 100 troy oz CMX 5.1 12.5 2 •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
S&P 500 Index CME 6.0 19.8 1 •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
Crude Oil - Light Sweet NYM 6.1 25.9 6 ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••
Corn CBOT 7.1 12.6 6 ••••••••••••••••••••••••••
Soybeans 5000 bushels CBOT 6.1 12.9 3 ••••••••••••••••••••••••••
Short Sterling LIFFE 0.1 8.4 17 •••••••••••••••••••
US Treasury Bonds CBOT 2.6 11.7 4 ••••••••••••••••••
Gas Oil ICE-EU 4.0 9.3 3 ••••••••••••••••••
5 Yr Treasury Notes CBOT 0.6 6.6 11 •••••••••••••••••
Sugar-World #11 ICE-US 5.9 6.1 6 •••••••••••••
Mini-Nasdaq 100 Index CME 4.4 10.8 5 •••••••••••••
Mini Russell 2000 CME 7.8 22.1 4 ••••••••••••
Xetra DAX-30 Stock Index EUREX 7.4 22.6 2 ••••••••••••
Wheat - Soft Red CBOT 8.4 12.6 4 •••••••••••
FT-SE 100 Index LIFFE 5.1 27.8 7 •••••••••••
Heating Oil #2 NYM 4.1 10.8 3 ••••••••••
Cotton #2 ICE-US 7.2 4.1 2 •••••••••
Silver 5000 troy oz CMX 9.8 17.2 1 ••••••••
10 Yr German Euro Bund EUREX 2.4 51.1 14 •••••••
RBOB Gas NYM 6.5 19.9 3 •••••••
2 Yr Treasury Notes CBOT 0.2 5.8 19 •••••••
3 Mo EuroSwiss LIFFE 0.0 1.4 4 ••••••
Mexican Peso CME 8.5 9.4 3 ••••••
Aust. Share Price Index SFE 5.4 40.5 8 ••••••
Coffee C ICE-US 6.6 7.3 2 •••••
2 Yr Euro Schatz EUREX 0.3 9.9 25 •••••
Soybean Meal CBOT 5.4 11.4 5 •••••
Euro Currency € CME 2.0 14.1 5 •••••
Cattle - Live CME 3.1 8.1 6 ••••
Canadian Dollar CME 1.6 6.8 5 ••••
Soybean Oil CBOT 5.0 12.1 9 •••
Australian Dollar CME 2.6 11.4 5 •••
5 Yr German Euro BOBL EUREX 1.2 44.3 28 •••
Long Gilt LIFFE 2.5 43.9 11 •••
Swiss Market Index EUREX 7.4 26.0 6 •••
Japanese Yen ¥ CME 2.1 11.8 4 •••
CAC-40 Stock Index MATIF 5.4 29.9 15 •••

You may note some significant changes in Futures Liquidity this month. The reasons are simple. First, one of the main parameters is based on volatility over the past years. For many interest rate-dependent futures, there has been almost no volatility in the recent past, making for a much lower multiple. Second, some futures have fallen out of favor and trade at less than 1/100th of what they did previously. Finally, some markets have become both more popular and more volatile, and vice versa.

 

CBOT - Chicago Board of Trade, Division of CME
CME - Chicago Mercantile Exchange including the International Monetary Market (IMM)
CMX - Commodity Exchange, Inc. CME Group
EUREX - European Exchange, Zurich & Frankfurt
ICE-EU - Intercontinental Exchange-Futures - Europe
ICE-US - Intercontinental Exchange-Futures - US
KCBT - Kansas City Board of Trade
LIFFE - London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange
MATIF - Marché à Terme International de France
NYM - New York Mercantile Exchange
SFE - Sydney Futures Exchange

Trading Liquidity: Futures is a reference chart for speculators. It compares markets according to their per-contract potential for profit and how easily contracts can be bought or sold (i.e., trading liquidity). Each is a proportional measure and is meaningful only when compared to others in the same column. The number in the “Contracts to Trade for Equal Dollar Profit” column shows how many contracts of one commodity must be traded to obtain the same potential return as another commodity. Contracts to Trade = (Tick $ value) x (3-year Maximum Price Excursion). “Relative Contract Liquidity” places commodities in descending order according to how easily all of their contracts can be traded. Commodities at the top of the list are easiest to buy and sell; commodities at the bottom of the list are the most difficult. “Relative Contract Liquidity” is the number of contracts to trade times total open interest times a volume factor, which is the greater of: 1 or exp (1n (volume) / 1n (5000)) - 2.

Originally published in the November 2012 issue of Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazine. All rights reserved. © Copyright 2012, Technical Analysis, Inc.

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