Here’s an index based on new highs and advances in the NYSE to help
you tell whether a price trend direction turn is a small correction or a
major change.
By Clifford Creel, PhD.
Does the degree of market volatility give us any clue to the future?
By Arthur A. Merrill.
The Wyckoff method can help identify the best issues in which to establish
a position and when to make a market commitment. This is the second article
in the series and focuses on stock selection in comparison with the overall
market.
By Craig Schroeder.
STOCKS & COMMODITIES interviews Dr. Alexander Elder, director of Financial Trading Seminars, and discusses futures trading and trading psychology.
Stochastics, an indicator based on the current close in relation to the
higher and lowest prices over an interval, suffers from oversensitivity,
and smoothing helps, so this author says.
By William Blau.
Using synthetic securities may reduce the investment required to implement
a strategy.
By Jean-Olivier Fraisse.
Random number generators can be used to model specialists as well
as stock charts.
By Mark Harris.
Find out what the commercials are doing by following the price charts along
with the volume. The double bottom is a revealing chart pattern.
By Thom Hartle.
Avoiding the pitfalls of hope, fear and greed.
By Robert Hamilton.
Support and resistance levels remain one of the basic components of technical
analysis.
By John J. Kosar.
Many believe that currency investments comprise only of futures and options.
But you actually have some interesting currency investment alternatives,
should you want to move your funds across foreign currency deposit accounts.
By John Beatty.
Our Technical Editor lays out the basic rules for controlling losses in
your trading system. His original concept of maximum adverse excursion of
price is explained.
By John Sweeney.
Ralph Bloch, senior vice president and chief market analyst for Raymond
James, has been active as a technical analyst on Wall Street since the early
1950s and has been writing weekly technical commentary for Mansfield Chart
Service for the past six years. STOCKS & COMMODITIES interviewed him
to get his views on the markets, technical analysis and Wall Street of the
past 35 years.
By Thom Hartle.
Believe it or not, trends and random walks can work together in analyzing
the markets.
By E. Michael Poulos.
Is there anything that differentiates the first bull swing from the preceding
bear market rallies?
By Arthur A. Merrill.
Success in the trading markets doesn’t come overnight. Read on and
write on.
By Thom Hartle.
Is bucking the trend just part of the trend?
By James P. Martin.
Converting your current data files into ASCII format should be no problem
using existing utilities, but converting ASCII format files to your trading
software file format may be limited. The access data features of N-Squared’s
APEX software may help. This article presents a short BASIC program that
will read your ASCII files, which you may have created from any source, and
create an APEX-compatible NDX file.
By Franz Hrazdira.
Trendlines help the analyst gauge whether a trend is accelerating or on
the verge of dying out. They also help the analyst set price objectives for
trend reversals and choose target prices for long or short positions.
By Melanie F. Bowman ad Thom Hartle.
Can intuition be encoded into an expert system?
By Yin Lung Shih.
If you’re worried you won’t be able to do simple math in your
head anymore, here’s an exercise to keep you fit mentally.
By Raymond Rothchild.
The real problem for traders is laying out current after-tax profits based
solely upon the guidance of 20/20 hindsight generated through past experience.
An expert system based on fuzzy logic can demonstrate how to use fuzzy logic
programming in everyday trading.
By J.F. Derry.
Cycle bottoms play out in two distinctive patterns, which the author calls
V and W. The key in determining which shape of bottom will occur is the maximum
number of daily new lows reached on the decline.
By Michael R. Burk.
Our Technical Editor makes a technical inspection of the moving average
to understand why this old standby works so neatly.
By John Sweeney.
Can predictable market intervals be exploited using artificial intelligence?
By Mark B. Fishman, Dean S. Barr and Walter Loick.
Markets clearly move from trending periods to trading ranges, but determining
when this change occurs presents a challenge. To meet this challenge, J.
Welles Wilder developed the average directional movement index.
By Thom Hartle.
Ever wonder why %K and %D?
By Thom Hartle.
Here’s a popular way to look at trends.
By Thom Hartle.
STOCKS & COMMODITIES interviews Steve Nison, the candlestick expert
who is primarily responsible for popularizing the technique in the West.
By Thom Hartle.
Can the time of highs and lows be significant?
By Arthur A. Merrill.
Most people are familiar with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, but relatively
few are familiar with the Dow theory. This author applies the Dow theory
to recent market movements toward the goal of predicting what lies ahead.
By Jack Rusin.
Most trading methodologies approach market activity from a price perspective.
But while price is an important dimension of market activity, time and pattern
can never be ignored. Traders have the best opportunity to make a profitable
trading decision when all three dimensions of market activity indicate that
change is likely. This article looks at the first dimension, time.
By Robert Miner.
How can you model stocks without stocks? By using random numbers.
By Mark Harris.
What if you combined the two?
By Daniel E. Downing.
The Wyckoff method lets you identify the best choices from potentials.
By Craig F. Schroeder.
Commodities that are deliverable today trade at a different price than the
very same commodity to be delivered in the future. This price differential
is called a spread. Month-to-month spreads often can be used to pick tops
and bottoms in agricultural commodities. While the method doesn’t always
work, it can be a very helpful tool.
By Curtis McKallip Jr.
When a market gaps to higher (or lower) levels, many traders will hesitate
to enter at even higher (or lower) levels than originally planned and, ironically,
often miss an explosive move in the market. But occasionally, you do get
a second chance to enter the trade before the explosive move by the judicious
use of breakaway gaps. This author explains.
By John Crane.
The well-known technician looks at his own directional system for trading.
By Arthur A. Merrill, CMT.
Can neural networks aid traders?
By Mark B. Fishman, Dean S. Barr and Walter J. Loick.
Are specific years during a decade more advantageous?
By Lewis Carl Mokrasch.
Robert Nurock is perhaps best-known for his 19-year sojourn on the Wall
Street Week TV program before he decided, in October last year, to
resign as panelist and “Chief Elf” on the respected financial
show to concentrate on his own research. STOCKS & COMMODITIES speaks
with the well-known forecaster.
By Thom Hartle.
The creator of the Arms Index explains how it works intraday.
By Richard W. Arms Jr.
Step four of the Wyckoff method presents that tricky concept: judgment.
By Craig F. Schroeder.
Try the following experiment. Turn your TV to an unused channel. The picture
on the screen will be pure static noise because no information is present.
Now stare at the screen for several minutes. You will start to see dots floating
across the screen patterns where there is none. Using this example, it is
easy to see why some trading decisions are made on the basis of false alarms.
The objective of information theory is to minimize the false alarms and missed
detections. Use this article to cut down on bad trades.
By John Ehlers.
Time, price and pattern are three all-important dimensions of market activity.
Traders have the best opportunity to make a profitable trading decision when
all three dimensions of market activity indicate that change is likely. This
article looks at the second dimension, price.
By Robert Miner.
Momentum is traditionally the result of a difference calculation; that is,
it’s calculated by subtracting the closing value on one date from the
closing value on some later date. This author furthers this calculation to
give the indicator an element of market direction.
By Darryl Maddox.
The RSI is unreliable for market entry, but for exiting the market, the
index can be very impressive. For traders who take multiple contracts in
a futures market, using RSI can be even more dynamic.
By David Cartwright.
Expert systems give the technical analyst a potent set of tools to dissect
trading and investment problems in short order. This author presents a small
but usable expert system based on fuzzy logic and demonstrates how to use
fuzzy logic programming in everyday practice.
By J.F. Derry.
Volume is a sorely overlooked discipline.
By Patrick Cifaldi, CMT.
What does Elliott wave theory say about gold?
By Horatio Miller.
Our Technical Editor continues his Settlement series, this time taking a
closer look at moving averages.
By John Sweeney.
STOCKS & COMMODITIES’ Editor and Technical Editor spoke with the
editor of Technical Trends.
By Thom Hartle and John Sweeney.
Here’s some sound trading strategy from the creator of TRIN.
By Richard W. Arms Jr.
The former editor and founder of Technical Trends explains how
to test indicators.
By Arthur A. Merrill, CMT.
Want to make more money? Invest, don’t trade!
By Robert L. Hand Jr.
Analyze the past to predict the future.
By Carl Sundquist.
Here’s a professional approach to adjusting futures positions.
By Csaba Radnoty.
The five-year growth rate, usually of earnings, is a common index of a company’s
well-being. Other factors being the same, you would want to own the stock
of a company with a high five-year growth rate and avoid or sell short the
stock of a company with a negative growth rate. It’s worth a look to
find out how to calculate this important number.
By Lewis Carl Mokrasch, PhD.
Time, price and pattern are three all-important dimensions of market activity.
Traders have the best opportunity to make a profitable trading decision when
all three dimensions of market activity indicate that change is likely. This
article looks at the third dimension, pattern.
By Robert Miner.
Here’s an indicator that gives double-smoothed curves to indicate
important peaks and valleys.
By William Blau.
Overconfidence can trigger losses. Here’s how to avoid it.
By Van K. Tharp, PhD.
You can reduce the risk of loss by dividing your starting capital into smaller
equal amounts. Find out the optimum allocation.
By Raymond Rothschild.
Our Technical Editor continues his Settlement column with a discussion of
the cyclic components of moving averages.
By John Sweeney.
Do you use two or more averages to identify trends and generate buy/sell
signals? Just use this one.
By George R. Arrington.
He wrote a text considered to be one of the classics of technical analysis.
Now he’s written a book on how all markets are interdependent.
By Thom Hartle.
Want to develop a neural system to predict the S&P 500 or the DJIA?
By Lou Mendelsohn.
Use the tick index of the NYSE to forecast tops and bottoms in the DJIA.
By Tim Ord.
The fifth step of the Wyckoff method explains the timing of getting into
and out of the market.
By Craig F. Schroeder.
Going against the market can be as futile as swimming against a river. This
trading psychologist tells us how to relax and go with the flow.
By Van K. Tharp, PhD.
Here’s a method that allows an investor to move into speculative investments
such as managed futures funds with a limited, predetermined risk.
By Richard A. Harrison.
When does a turning point become important enough to set a level?
By Arthur A. Merrill, CMT.
What good are all the indicators in the galaxy if they monitor the same
thing?
By Thom Hartle.
You can depend on more than death and taxes. Try the end of the month!
By Ben Warwick.
Is it time to focus on the DJIA?
By Daniel E. Downing.
Our Technical Editor gives a real-life example of trading gaps in the Dmark
using maximum adverse excursion to measure risk.
By John Sweeney.
Find out if a trading range is a consolidation or a reversal by trying this.
By Thom Hartle.
The basic theoretical relationship between changes in long-term interest
rates and stock prices is inverse. Falling interest rates signal rising stock
prices, while inversely, rising interest rates signal falling stock prices.
Changes in interest rates affect stock prices inversely for two distinct
reasons. Learn them cold.
By Mark C. Snead.
This author read one of Technical Editor John Sweeney’s Settlement
pieces, and, curious, decided to experiment.
By Mark Harris.
It’s been a few years since these were introduced. So how are they
faring?
By Charles Idol.
STOCKS & COMMODITIES this month interviews Richard D. Arms, creator
of the Arms index and Equivolume charting.
By Thom Hartle.
Knowing how to compute entry points for your trades exactly at price crests
and valleys when the market is in the cyclic mode can be advantageous.
By John F. Ehlers.
A sure thing isn’t if your information isn’t. Psychologist Van
Tharp tells you how to be discerning.
By Van K. Tharp, PhD.
What does this venerable theory state about confirmation and divergence?
By Richard L. Evans.
The theory behind the sentiment index holds that it’s best to be a
contrarian. Examine the sentiment index to determine how reliable it was
for the past nine years.
By William Lansburg.
The “summer rally” appears in some years but is absent in others.
Does it deserve its name?
By Arthur A. Merrill, CMT.
Our Technical Editor explores the benefits and drawbacks of drawing a trendline.
By John Sweeney.
Ned Davis Research strategist Tim Hayes spoke with S&C about the firm’s
approach and emphasis on models and trend-sensitive indicators.
By Thom Hartle.
Hybrid technologies are perhaps the most-investigated topic in artificial
intelligence today and here’s how to apply the subject to trading.
By Mark B. Fishman and Dean S. Barr.
Is it all hype and no substance, this candlestick business? This author
says not. Here’s a closer look.
By Greg Morris.
The U.S. humorist’s philosophy about the market is turned into a new
technique.
By J. Adam Hewison.
In 1988 Merrill showed that the price/dividends ratio was useful in calling
the 1987 crash. What’s the outlook today?
By Arthur A. Merrill, CMT.
By Roger Pilloton.
Swing charting unites time and space to find profits.
By J.R. Davis.
The sentiment readings of the Market Vane service is a poll taken daily
from futures trading advisors indicating the percentage that are bullish
at that moment. Ironically, market consensus is used as a contrarian indicator.
Does it work? This author transforms the Market Vane index into a better
indicator.
By Kenneth L. Kinkopf Jr.
Before options were available, the primary vehicle used for risk management
was the stop-loss order. Stop-loss orders allow a certain degree of risk
management, but they don’t allow the user to absolutely define the
amount of risk. Nowadays, put and call options can be utilized to define
and implement risk management. Learn these basic risk-management strategies
using options.
By Robert J. Hamilton.
It’s popular, all right too popular? Not yet. It’s still effective.
By Herbert S. Hall.
Most intraday technical traders use charts based on hours or fractions of
an hour. Most trading days, however, don’t divide evenly into hours
or conventional time fractions such as 30 or 45 minutes. Here are some suggestions
from an intraday trader on how to handle bar lengths.
By Cynthia Kase.
Our Technical Editor opines about the demographic effect the baby boomer
generation is having on the stock market.
By John Sweeney.
Notice how indicators may contradict each other? Well, here’s a combined
multiple regression model of economic and related market indicators for a
fundamental and technical time series approach to market forecasting.
By Thomas H. Lincoln.
STOCKS & COMMODITIES spoke with technical analyst Steve Shobin of Merrill
Lynch about his approach to the markets.
By Thom Hartle.
Here’s a fresh look on using nonlinear systems and chaos theory to
understand the markets.
By Victor E. Krynicki, PhD.
The traditional methods of stock picking still work, as this author shows.
By Richard L. Evans.
Here’s a look at an old fundamental analysis favorite and what it
can do for the technical analyst.
By Arthur A. Merrill, CMT.
While the perfect trading system may be elusive, sharing information with
others is very attainable. One way to do so is to become part of a technical
analysis group.
By Barbara Star, PhD.
Here’s a look at the new order of artificial intelligence linked with
the old order of candlestick charting.
By Gary S. Wagner and Bradley L. Matheny.
This article, which was originally a Traders’ Challenge entry, intrigued
us so much that we had to share it with you.
By Patrick E. Lafferty.
Our Technical Editor reveals the importance of putting real numbers behind
the traditional ways through quantitative tests.
By John Sweeney.
Here’s a unique twist on the moving average convergence/divergence
indicator, and how to profit from it.
By John F. Ehlers.
STOCKS & COMMODITIES spoke with mutual fund manager and timer Paul Merriman
about the systems he uses.
By Thom Hartle.
Could filtering point and figure upgrade it to logarithmic status?
By Arthur A. Merrill, CMT.
Presenting an intriguing new method of trend analysis.
By Gilbert Raff.
Candlesticks analyzed as individual charts or summaries?
By Jean-Olivier Fraisse and Kevin D. Armstrong.
How much can price changes during off-hours hurt you?
By George R. Arrington and Howard E. Arrington.
Here, a new look at the Trin for volume analysis.
By Jack Rusin.
Here’s an excerpt from the new book that you may have already heard
about, Trader Vic.
Adapted from a book by Victor Sperandeo and T. Sullivan Brown
Hunting down promising stocks? Try this and see how reliable those stocks
could be.
By Hugh Stokely and Ken Stewart.
Our Technical Editor recounts a conversation with his daughter about the
real value of things.
By John Sweeney.
A trader takes the relative strength index and improves on it.
By William Blau.
STOCKS & COMMODITIES spoke with Bill Byers of Bear Stearns on trading
the current market.
By Thom Hartle.
Mutual funds can be traded as both sentiment and timing indicators.
By Joe Duarte.
This famous technician identified certain swing movements in the market.
By Arthur A. Merrill, CMT.
Here’s an indicator based on the concept used in %K and %R.
By Tushar Chande, PhD.
The Fed policy’s effect on the stock market is clear, this author
says.
By George A. Schade Jr.
Do natural cycles affect the trading of stocks and commodities?
By Hans Hannula, PhD.
Can we project how far a move will go?
By E.M.S. Flynn and Thom Hartle.
Do you work hard but don’t get anything done? You’re not alone.
By Van K. Tharp, PhD.
The publisher of STOCKS & COMMODITIES undertook the task of comparing
Pcs for the best bargains. Here are the results.
By Jack K. Hutson.
Hard statistical data can help keep your head clear of emotional stress.
By Michael J. Moody, CMT.
In his continuing Settlement column, our Technical Editor this month provides
a reality check on system development.
By John Sweeney.
STOCKS & COMMODITIES spoke with Fidelity technician Philip Erlanger
about, among other topics, his use of short interest data.
By Thom Hartle.
This article, on a basic technique, was originally published in July 1988.
By Arthur A. Merrill, CMT.
The CRB index and the bond market, which have been analyzed together in
the past because of their similarities and parallels, are compared using
quarterly rolling windows for correlation.
By Jim Bianco.
Here’s an excerpt from a 10-session class on technical analysis and
goes into basic definitions, what volume and open interest really mean, what
they mean in the market and what the market positions are.
By Dan Earl Essig.
The authors merge the fundamental analyst’s favorite datum, the price/earnings
ratio, with the earnings growth rate to come up with the price-to-future-earnings
rate.
By Pamela H. Brown and William G.S. Brown.
Dr. Tharp talks about the unwise, sometimes compulsive reliance on the easy
data flashed on the screen, sometimes to the detriment of everyday living
and profitable trading: The on-line computer screen can be a trader’s
worst enemy.
By Van K. Tharp, PhD.
Candlestick charting has become accepted (more or less) by Western technicians
only a few years after its introduction from Japan. One of the ways that
Western technicians are using candlesticks is to preserve capital and use
in solid low-risk money management.
By Gary S. Wagner and Bradley L. Matheny.
Portfolio management is tricky, since it requires the continuous juggling
of the most promising assets while limiting risk. Here are the best methods
to assess risk in an equity (stock) portfolio.
By Jean-Olivier Fraisse.
The most misinterpreted signals in Dow theory, their uses are explained
by this well-known theorist.
By Richard L. Evans .
How do eclipses affect traders in their trading performance? The effect
isn’t necessarily dependable, but there seems to be one often enough
to investigate.
By Hans Hannula.
Our Technical Editor shares his thoughts on stop placement.
By John Sweeney.